Kelly Criterion Calculator
Category: Betting Strategy & ManagementKelly Criterion Calculator
Optimal betting size calculation for maximum long-term growth
Basic Kelly Criterion
Where: b = decimal odds - 1, p = win probability, q = lose probability
Betting Odds
Your Win Probability
Bankroll Information
Advanced Kelly Analysis
Understanding Kelly Criterion
What is Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithm of wealth. It balances the trade-off between maximizing expected growth and minimizing risk of ruin.
The Formula
f* = fraction of bankroll to bet
b = decimal odds received - 1
p = probability of winning
q = probability of losing (1-p)
Key Assumptions
- Independent betting opportunities
- Known probability of winning
- Ability to bet exact fractions
- No transaction costs
- Logarithmic utility (wealth maximization)
Example 1: Positive Kelly
Situation: Betting odds of +150 (2.5 decimal), you estimate 50% win probability
Calculation: f* = (1.5 × 0.5 - 0.5) / 1.5 = 0.167 or 16.7%
Result: Bet 16.7% of bankroll for optimal growth
Example 2: Negative Kelly
Situation: Betting odds of +100 (2.0 decimal), you estimate 40% win probability
Calculation: f* = (1.0 × 0.4 - 0.6) / 1.0 = -0.2 or -20%
Result: Negative Kelly suggests no bet (no positive expected value)
Example 3: Small Edge
Situation: Betting odds of -110 (1.91 decimal), you estimate 55% win probability
Calculation: f* = (0.91 × 0.55 - 0.45) / 0.91 = 0.049 or 4.9%
Result: Small edge requires conservative bet sizing
⚠️ Probability Estimation
Kelly is extremely sensitive to probability estimates. Small errors in probability can lead to significant over-betting and increased risk of ruin.
⚠️ High Volatility
Full Kelly can result in large drawdowns. Many professionals use fractional Kelly (25-50%) to reduce volatility while maintaining good growth.
⚠️ Correlation Risk
Kelly assumes independent bets. Correlated outcomes can dramatically increase risk. Adjust bet sizes when bets are related.
⚠️ Liquidity Constraints
Kelly assumes you can bet exact fractions and reinvest winnings immediately. Real-world constraints may require adjustments.
Fractional Kelly
Bet a fraction (typically 25-50%) of the Kelly recommendation to reduce volatility while maintaining most of the growth benefit.
Fixed Percentage
Bet a fixed percentage of bankroll regardless of odds or probability. Simple but suboptimal.
Fixed Unit Size
Bet the same dollar amount on every bet. Popular among recreational bettors.
Confidence-Based
Adjust bet size based on confidence level in the bet, often combined with Kelly.
Bet Smarter, Not Harder: Your Secret Weapon for Profitable Betting
If you’ve ever wondered how pro bettors decide how much to bet without going broke, here’s the answer: the Kelly Criterion Calculator. This tool helps iGamers figure out the exact amount to bet in order to grow their money over time—without taking huge risks. It’s like a cheat code for bankroll management, using real math instead of gut feelings.
From Odds to Optimal: How the Kelly Calculator Gets the Numbers Right
The calculator uses a formula called the Kelly Criterion. Sounds fancy, but here’s the simple idea: it figures out the best percentage of your bankroll to bet, based on your odds of winning and how good the odds are.
You plug in:
- The odds for the bet (you can choose American, Decimal, Fractional, or even just implied probability).
- Your estimated chance of winning (enter it manually, from past results, or from a predictive model).
- Your bankroll size and whether you want to keep a reserve.
Then, with one click, you get the sweet spot: how much to bet and your expected growth if you keep using this approach long-term.
🎯 Top Features That Make This Calculator a Game-Changer
- Odds Converter: Easily switch between odds formats and see implied probabilities instantly.
- Flexible Win Probabilities: Choose between manual input, historical win rates, or advanced models.
- Fractional Kelly: Dial your risk up or down with conservative or aggressive bet options.
- Portfolio Mode: Analyze multiple bets at once, including how they affect each other.
- Monte Carlo Simulations: Run thousands of betting scenarios to see your possible futures.
- Custom Risk Settings: Set your own drawdown limits, risk tolerance, and profit goals.
When It’s All On the Line: Real iGaming Situations Where It Shines
Let’s say you’ve got a $1,000 bankroll and you’re eyeing a bet at +150 odds. You believe your win chance is around 55%. Instead of guessing how much to risk, the calculator tells you exactly how much to bet to get the best return over time—maybe that’s $83, not $200 or $500.
Or maybe you have three live bets in a weekend parlay, and they’re not totally independent. The Portfolio mode helps spread your risk smartly, so you don’t double down where things overlap too much.
📌 Quick, Real-Life Use Cases
- Sports Bettor: You back underdogs with sharp edge models. This tool helps you size your bets just right—even when confidence varies.
- eSports Trader: You analyze match history. Use the historical record input to plug in past wins/losses and get win rates instantly.
- Casino Enthusiast: Use it to calculate how much to wager in games with positive expected value promotions.
Why It Pays to Use the Kelly Calculator
In iGaming, smart bet sizing is everything. Bet too much, and you go bust. Bet too little, and you waste your edge. The Kelly Criterion Calculator helps you hit that perfect middle ground, growing your bankroll with way less stress.
🚀 Major Benefits That Set It Apart
- Boosts Long-Term Profits: Designed to maximize growth over time—not just short wins.
- Protects Against Risk: Prevents betting too much on uncertain picks.
- Customizable Strategies: Fractional Kelly and portfolio tools let you fine-tune your risk style.
- Great for Learning: Built-in education tabs explain how it all works in real English.
- Quick and Visual: Results, risk levels, and suggestions are shown in real-time with simple charts and stats.
What You Should Know Before Diving In
Like all tools, this calculator isn’t magic. Its suggestions depend entirely on how accurate your win probability is. Guess wrong, and even the best bet size won’t help. Also, full Kelly betting can be super volatile—big ups and big downs. That’s why fractional Kelly is often the safer bet for most people.
Getting the Most Out of Your Kelly Calculator
Want to level up your betting game? Here are some simple ways to squeeze the most out of this tool:
- Start with 25–50% Kelly to reduce swings until you’re confident in your edge.
- Always double-check your probability estimates. Use past data or trusted models.
- Keep a reserve bankroll. That 20% cushion saves you from wipeouts.
- Use Monte Carlo simulations to stress-test your strategy over thousands of bets.
- Explore the optimization tab to tailor your strategy to your exact goals and risk levels.
In the end, this calculator helps iGamers stop betting blind and start betting smart. It’s not just a tool—it’s a strategy, a teacher, and a safety net, all rolled into one neat package.